{"id":456,"date":"2020-02-05T22:11:30","date_gmt":"2020-02-06T05:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/?p=456"},"modified":"2020-02-05T22:11:30","modified_gmt":"2020-02-06T05:11:30","slug":"probably-maybe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/probably-maybe\/","title":{"rendered":"Probably Maybe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"688\" height=\"387\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ehdAEyAGBEc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n\t&#8220;It&#8217;s absolutely true.&#8221; says Diana.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Is it? What do you think?&#8221; asks John Gage<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I agree with Diana.&#8221; David replies<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You do? Well let&#8217;s test the clich\u00e9. Suppose &#8212; I were to offer you one million dollars for one night with your wife.&#8221; Gage says.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I&#8217;d assume you&#8217;re kidding.&#8221; says David<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Let&#8217;s pretend I&#8217;m not. What would you say?&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;He&#8217;d tell you to go to hell.&#8221; Diana pipes in<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I didn&#8217;t hear him.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I&#8217;d tell you to go to hell.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Indescent Proposal is my favorite love story, this scene is at a critical<br \/>\njunction in the movie, and the whole premise of the story. Billionaire John Gage can<br \/>\nhave anything he wants, money is no problem, but can he buy love?<\/p>\n<p>David has love, the love of his life Dianna. She is a talented real estate<br \/>\nagent, and her high school sweetheart, David is a crafty architect. He<br \/>\nhas designed the home of their dreams, trouble is they can&#8217;t afford it.<br \/>\nSo they take what they got and head to Vegas. There they are hoping to<br \/>\nincrease their funds to finance the home of their dreams.<\/p>\n<p>They end up losing all their money at the roulette table, but<br \/>\nDianna runs into billionaire John Gage. He invites Dianna and David<br \/>\nto a private party in which he makes the &#8220;indescent proposal&#8221;. At<br \/>\nfirst they both tell Gage to &#8220;go to hell&#8221; but after deliberation, they<br \/>\nreally could use the money, I mean money can&#8217;t buy love right?<\/p>\n<p>They agree to the offer, and Dianna flies to Gage&#8217;s private yatch. Gage<br \/>\nunderstands how this is distressing to Dianna and will give the continuance<br \/>\nof the night to fate. A flip of his lucky coin to determine if all<br \/>\nbets are off. He calls it correctly.<\/p>\n<p>In a normal sense a coin has a 50\/50 probability. Half the time it will<br \/>\nbe heads and the other half it will be tails. Unless the coin is<br \/>\nweighted then things change, or if it is double-sided. Watch the<br \/>\nmovie to reveal the coin that Gage used, it&#8217;s great.<\/p>\n<p>When you think of stats and probability a coin is pretty basic. It<br \/>\ncan either be heads or tails, those are the only options you have. With<br \/>\nAWS they can compile stats that will predict the probability of<br \/>\nPatrick Mahomes completing a pass on his left foot going out of bounds.<br \/>\nFootball is very dynamic with a lot of variables, I am not sure<br \/>\nhow they do it but I can crunch some numbers for bowling.<\/p>\n<p>David in the story is played by Woody Harellson, he was also<br \/>\na talented bowler in the movie Kingpin, Munson. Let&#8217;s say<br \/>\nthat Munson was so good that he hit a strike 75 percent of the time.<br \/>\nIn order to calculate the probability of a Turkey for Munson ( that is<br \/>\nthree strikes in a row not a bird, like you can get for seeing a person for the last time )<\/p>\n<p>The math goes like this for Munson, he hits a strike .75 of the time,<br \/>\nwe need three in a row so the probability is .75 x .75 x .75 x .25 = .105.<br \/>\nRoughly a 10% chance of bowling a turkey.<\/p>\n<p>Now Dianna and David tried their luck at roulette, if instead<br \/>\nthey would have tried their luck at poker, the biggest payout<br \/>\nwould be for a Royal Flush. This is straight flush, but with a<br \/>\nspecific set of cards. The straight flush has to be all of the same<br \/>\nsuite with 10,J,Q,K,A. <\/p>\n<p>What are the chances?<\/p>\n<p>Okay with 10,J,K,Q,A we have 5 cards and 4 suites, so the first<br \/>\ncard can be 20\/52. The next card has to be in the same suite so<br \/>\nwe have 20\/52 x 4\/51. The next card also has to be in the same suite<br \/>\nso we have 3\/50, then 2\/49, and 1\/48. You multiply them all together<br \/>\nyou get 20\/52 x 4\/51 x 3\/50 x 2\/49 x 1\/48 or 480\/311,875,200 roughly<br \/>\na 1:649,740 chance.<\/p>\n<p>In the story love conquers all against all odds. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s absolutely true.&#8221; says Diana. &#8220;Is it? What do you think?&#8221; asks John Gage &#8220;I agree with Diana.&#8221; David replies&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=456"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/456\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":459,"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/456\/revisions\/459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/joshuadahl.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}